Anna, TX — There will be no Friday night football for Anna this week, but the Coyotes’ position in the District 4-5A Division II playoff race continues to get stronger.
Anna enters its bye week undefeated at 7–0 overall and 5–0 in district play, sitting atop a crowded race for four playoff spots. Thursday night’s result elsewhere in the district added another wrinkle, as Frisco Panther Creek defeated Frisco Emerson, pulling the Panthers even with Emerson at three district wins.
With 15 district games remaining after Thursday’s contest, The Anna Progress examined all 32,768 possible combinations of results to determine where each team stands in the race for postseason qualification.
The analysis places Anna in a playoff position in approximately 99.7% of the remaining scenarios, the highest share of any team in the district.
For the Coyotes, the route to removing that final uncertainty is remarkably simple: win one more game.
Breaking Down the Numbers
The analysis measures two separate aspects of the district race: playoff scenario share and Quality of Wins (QOW).
Playoff scenario share represents each team’s portion of the 32,768 possible combinations of remaining results. Every game is treated as having two possible outcomes, with neither team favored. These figures are therefore not traditional predictive odds.
For scenarios involving teams tied at the four-team playoff cutoff, the available postseason positions are divided proportionally among the tied teams. The resulting percentages describe each team’s share of possible playoff positions under that model, not a guarantee of how an actual district tiebreaker would be resolved.
QOW measures something different: the strength of opponents a team has already defeated in district play. It averages the current overall winning percentages of up to three of those opponents, using the three strongest when more are available.
Thursday’s Panther Creek victory changed both the playoff calculations and several QOW ratings.
Anna’s QOW now stands at 66.9, while Celina’s is 61.3. Panther Creek improved from 39.3 to 47.0, reflecting its third district victory and the addition of Emerson to its list of defeated opponents.
The updated figures give a clearer picture of both where teams stand and how they reached their positions.
The District as a Whole
The remaining possibilities divide District 4 into several distinct groups. Anna and Celina have separated themselves at the top, Frisco and Panther Creek hold strong positions behind them, Emerson remains on the bubble, and the bottom four face increasingly narrow paths.
Anna is the district’s closest team to a mathematical playoff lock. Its 99.7% scenario share leads the field, as does its 66.9 QOW.
The Coyotes have three district games remaining: Denison on Oct. 23, Celina on Oct. 30 and Richland on Nov. 5. Winning any one of those contests guarantees Anna a postseason berth by record, regardless of results elsewhere.
Even an 0–3 finish would not automatically eliminate Anna. At 5–3, the Coyotes could become involved in a tie around the four-team cutoff, but no remaining combination allows four opponents to finish strictly ahead of them by district record.
Celina is similarly secure, appearing in approximately 95.6% of the remaining scenarios. The undefeated Bobcats entered the week 4–0 in district play and need two additional district victories to guarantee qualification. With Frisco, Memorial, Anna and Denison remaining, Celina has the opportunities to settle its postseason position.
The two undefeated programs could therefore meet Oct. 30 with playoff qualification already settled and the district championship carrying greater significance.
Behind them, Frisco holds a 75.3% scenario share, although its 35.7 QOW is considerably lower than either front-runner’s. The Raccoons have defeated Memorial, Denison and Independence, leaving much of their most difficult schedule ahead. Their remaining opponents include Celina, Richland, Panther Creek and Emerson.
Panther Creek made the district’s biggest move Thursday. Its victory over Emerson improved the Panthers to 3–2 in district play and left them with a 62.9% playoff scenario share.
The Panthers also now hold a 47.0 QOW, the third-highest figure in the district. Victories over Independence, Frisco and Memorial in their remaining games would bring Panther Creek to six district wins and guarantee qualification by record.
That result came at Emerson’s expense. The Mavericks dropped to 3–3 and now hold a 38.5% scenario share despite a respectable 42.9 QOW.
Emerson has only Independence and Frisco remaining. Even winning both would leave the Mavericks at 5–3, meaning they can no longer guarantee qualification simply by reaching six district victories. Their postseason hopes remain alive, but results elsewhere could become decisive.
Below Emerson, the race becomes substantially more difficult.
Memorial and Richland remain mathematically alive, appearing in 13.1% and 12.0% of the remaining scenarios, respectively. Both can still reach five district victories, but neither controls its postseason fate by record alone.
Denison faces an even narrower path at 2.9%. The Yellow Jackets entered this stretch with a 1–4 district record despite having scored 153 points and allowed 148. Even victories over Memorial, Anna and Celina would leave Denison at 4–4 and dependent on substantial help.
Independence sits at the edge of elimination, appearing in just 0.1% of the remaining scenarios. The Knights can finish no better than 3–5, and another district loss would eliminate them by record.
Taken together, the picture is increasingly clear: Anna and Celina are near-locks, Frisco and Panther Creek are in strong position, Emerson is on the bubble, and the remaining four teams are running out of opportunities.
Anna Has Already Beaten the Contenders
Anna’s position at the top of the district is not simply the product of accumulating five victories. The Coyotes have already defeated several of the teams competing for the remaining playoff spots.
Anna beat Panther Creek 42–27 and Emerson 42–21 before surviving Frisco 16–14 in a Homecoming thriller.
Those three victories form the foundation of Anna’s district-leading QOW. They also explain why the Coyotes have built such a substantial advantage in the playoff race: much of their strongest competition has already appeared on their schedule.
Anna followed its dramatic victory over Frisco with a commanding 49–7 win against Frisco Memorial.
Sophomore running back Chasyn Elder scored five touchdowns, including four on the ground, while the Anna defense prevented Memorial from scoring an offensive touchdown. Memorial’s only points came on a fourth-quarter interception return.
Running back Juelz Carter has established himself among the district’s leading rushers, while quarterback Zephyr Kreye has directed an offense capable of winning both high-scoring contests and close games. Kicker Desmar Marroquin has also remained perfect on extra-point attempts this season.
Through five district games, Anna has scored 219 points and allowed 83, producing a plus-136 scoring differential.
The Coyotes have combined offensive production with victories over direct postseason competitors, leaving them with considerably more room for error than most of the district.
32,768 Possibilities, One Simple Path
For much of District 4, the final weeks will require a combination of winning and watching results elsewhere.
Panther Creek’s Thursday victory strengthened its position while reducing Emerson’s margin for error. Frisco still faces several of its most consequential opponents, while Memorial, Richland and Denison increasingly need help from teams above them.
Anna’s situation is considerably less complicated.
The Coyotes return to Coyote Stadium against Denison on Oct. 23 with their first opportunity to guarantee a playoff berth. After that comes the Oct. 30 trip to Celina, followed by Richland and the conclusion of the regular season.
The district championship remains undecided, and Anna still has important football ahead.
But when it comes to reaching the postseason, the Coyotes have already done most of the work.
There may be 32,768 possible ways for the remainder of District 4 to unfold.
For Anna, the most important one starts with one more win.
Editor’s note: The Anna Progress evaluated all 32,768 possible win-loss combinations across the 15 district games remaining following Panther Creek’s Oct. 15 victory over Emerson. Playoff scenario shares count each combination equally and allocate unresolved cutoff ties proportionally. They are not predictive probabilities. QOW ratings reflect opponents’ reported overall records following Thursday’s game, before Friday’s scheduled contests. An independently verified copy of District 4’s written 2026 tiebreaking procedure was not available, so actual playoff qualification in tied-record scenarios may differ from the proportional model.
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